Antonio Ciccone, Ph.D.

Latest Research

• Reporting Big News, Missing the Big Picture? Stock Market Performance in the Media (PDF, 1 MB), with Felix Rusche, June 2025 (CEPR DP 20119). Non-technical summary (PDF, 188 kB).
  Between 2017 and 2024, the main national stock market indices rose in the US and the five largest European economies. However, the average daily performance of all six indices turns from positive to negative when weighted by daily media coverage. A case in point is the average daily performance of Germany’s DAX index on days it was reported on the country's most-watched nightly news. While the DAX increased by more than 4 index points per day over the period, the index dropped by more than 10 points on days it was reported -- news was bad news. On days the DAX wasn't covered on the nightly news, the index rose by around 10 points -- no news was good news.
• The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement (PDF, 10 MB), with Jan Nimczik, November 2024. Revise and resubmit Review of Economic Studies.
  The focus is on the effects on labor productivity and wages. We find substantial positive effects and show that they are consistent with spatial equilibrium as higher wages are balanced by higher rents.  We provide evidence on the type of agglomeration economies sustaining high population density, labor productivity, wages, and rents following refugee arrivals. The discussion of the related literature on the economic effects of refugees in post-WWII Germany has been updated.
• Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions: A Comment, (PDF, 320 kB) with Jan Nimczik, July 2024, CRC TR 244 DP 579. 
  — See also the note that Michael Peters published October 2024 on the website of The Econometric Society: 
  Michael Peters (2024): Market Size and Spatial Growth–Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions – Update Regarding Data Source (PDF, 77 kB), October, Replication Package Zip File, available here.
• Felix Auerbach and Zipf’s (1941) law for cities. Surprisingly, Felix Auerbach’s 1913 pioneering article on the distribution of city sizes in Germany, the UK, the US, and other countries as well as regions had never been translated to English. My translation with a brief introduction (PDF, 2 MB) is published in EPB: Urban Analytics and City Science, 2023. See also the EPB editorial of Michael Batty (PDF). Diego Rybski and I also wrote a brief history of science article (PDF, 938 kB) on Auerbach, Zipf, and Lotka. Lotka (1925), building on Auerbach, introduced the modern representation of the Auerbach-Lotka-Zipf law for cities. Our article has been published in Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 2023. In writing the article, Diego and I found out about the very early empirical work of Saibante (1928). Like Auerbach, Saibante also looks at different countries and regions, but he used the methodological approach of Lotka. This makes Saibante the pioneer of modern empirical work on the Auerbach-Lotka-Zipf law for cities.
• Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models using Benchmark Industry Characteristics (PDF, 735 kB), with Elias Papaioannou, January 2023, Online Appendix (PDF, 306 kB). Published in The Economic Journal. Replication files and (standalone) matlab estimation program.
• Rainfall, Agricultural Output, and Persistent Democratization (PDF, 1 MB), with  Adilzhan Ismailov, December 2021, Supplementary Appendix (PDF, 477 kB). Readme and Access to a Folder with Replication Codes&Data. Economica.
• The Effect of WWI Military Casualties on the Population Distribution in Germany (PDF, 420 kB), May 2021, Supplementary Appendix (PDF, 420 kB) (The first version of this paper, circulated in April, was entitled Gibrat's Law for Cities: Evidence from WWI Casualties). NBER Summer Institute 2021 presentation slides. (PDF, 630 kB)
• Civil War and Commodity Price Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond (PDF, 559 kB), June 2020, Online Appendix Tables. (PDF, 373 kB)
• Democratic Tipping Points (PDF, 1 MB), with Adilzhan Ismailov, May 2020.
• Voxeu article on Democratic Tipping Points.
• International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond (PDF, 537 kB), July 2019,  Readme with Access to a Folder with Replication Codes&Data (PDF, 260 kB). Codes Allow for Choosing Additional Specifications Easily. Direct Access to the Folder
  Appendix A: Dealing with Mismeasured Commodity Export Shares (PDF, 278 kB), Appendix B: Appendix Figures and Tables (PDF, 647 kB).

Main Publications

• Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models using Benchmark Industry Characteristics (PDF, 735 kB), with Elias Papaioannou, June 2022, Online Appendix (PDF, 306 kB). Published in The Economic Journal. Replication files and (standalone) matlab estimation program.
• Rainfall, Agricultural Output, and Persistent Democratization (PDF, 1 MB), with  Adilzhan Ismailov, December 2021, Supplementary Appendix (PDF, 477 kB). Readme and Access to a Folder with Replication Codes&Data. Economica.
• The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach: Comment (PDF, 587 kB), (with Francesco Caselli), American Economic Review, 109 (3), 2019, 1155-1174.
• Agricultural Risk and the Spread of Religious Communities (PDF, 2 MB), (with Philipp Ager), Journal of the European Economic Association, 16 (4), 2018, pp. 1021-68. Supplementary Appendix (PDF).
• One Effect to Rule them All? A Comment on Climate and Conflic (PDF)t (PDF), (with 25 co-authors), Climatic Change, 127, (3–4), 2014, 391–397.
• The Contribution of Schooling in Development Accounting: Results from a Nonparametric Upper Bound (PDF, 317 kB), (with F. Caselli), Journal of Development Economics, 104, 2013, 199–211.
• Estimating Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict (PDF, 881 kB), Review of Economics and Institutions, 4 (2), 2013, 1–14.
• Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy (PDF, 178 kB), (with M. Brückner and A. Tesei), Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 (2), 2012, 389–399.
• Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment (PDF, 526 kB), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (4), 2011, 215–227 (Web Appendix (PDF)).
• Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (PDF, 324 kB), (with M. Brückner), Econometrica, 79 (3), 2011, 923–947.
• Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell? (PDF, 688 kB), (with M. Jarocinski), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2 (4), 2010, 222–246 (Web Appendices A and B (PDF), C (PDF), D (PDF)).
• International Commodity Prices, Growth, and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa (PDF, 534 kB), (with M. Brückner), The Economic Journal, 120 (544), 2010, 519–534.
• Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth (PDF, 138 kB), (with E. Papaioannou), Review of Economics and Statistics, 91 (1), 2009, 66–82.
• Linkages (PDF, 136 kB), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,  2008.
• Urban Production Externalities (PDF, 104 kB), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,  2008.
• Red Tape and Delayed Entry (PDF, 92 kB), (with E. Papaioannou), Journal of European Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings, 5 (2–3), 2007, 444–458.
• Identifying Human Capital Externalities: Theory with Applications (PDF, 182 kB), (with G. Peri), Review of Economic Studies, 73 (2), 2006, 381–412.
• Long-run Substitutability Between More and Less Educated Workers: Evidence from US States 1950-1990 (PDF, 189 kB), (with G. Peri), Review of Economics and Statistics, 87 (4), 2005, 652–663.
• The Private and Social Return to Schooling in Italy (PDF, 289 kB), (with F. Cingano and P. Cipollone), Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, December 2004.
• On Payoff Heterogeneity in Games with Strategic Complementarities (PDF, 123 kB), (with J. Costain), Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (4), 2004, 701–713.
• Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty: Comment (PDF, 93 kB), American Economic Review, 94 (3), 2004, 785–795.
• Trade and Productivity (PDF, 566 kB), (with F. Alcala), Quarterly Journal of Economics, CXIX (2), 2004, 613–646.
• Human Capital in a Global and Knowledge-Based Economy (PDF, 582 kB), (with A. de la Fuente), Report, European Comission, DG Employment and Social Affairs, 2002.
• Input Chains and Industrialization (PDF, 2 MB), Review of Economic Studies, 69 (3), 2002, 565–587.
• Agglomeration Effects in Europe (PDF, 119 kB), European Economic Review, 46 (2), 2002, 213–227.
• Business cycles and investment in human capital: international evidence on higher education: A comment (PDF, 311 kB), Science Direct, Carnegie Special Issue, Volume 52, June 2000, 257–262.
• Efficiency and Equilibrium with Dynamic Increasing Aggregate Returns due to Demand Complementarities (PDF, 194 kB), (with K. Matsuyama, Econometrica, 67 (3), 1999, 499–525.
• Start-up Costs and Pecuniary Externalities as Barriers to Economic Development (PDF, 1 MB), (with K. Matsuyama), Journal of Development Economics, 49 (1), 1996, 33–59.
• Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity (PDF, 2 MB), (with R. Hall), American Economic Review, 86 (1), 1996, 54–70.