Dr. Antonio Ciccone

Aktuelle Forschung

• Reporting Big News, Missing the Big Picture? Stock Market Performance in the Media, with Felix Rusche, April 2025 (CEPR DP 20119). Eine nicht-technische Zusammenfassung (auf Deutsch).
  Between 2017 and 2024, the main national stock market indices rose in the US and the five largest European economies. However, the average daily performance of all six indices turns from positive to negative when weighted by daily media coverage. A case in point is the average daily performance of Germany’s DAX index on days it was reported on the country's most-watched nightly news. While the DAX increased by more than 4 index points per day over the period, the index dropped by more than 10 points on days it was reported -- news was bad news. On days the DAX wasn't covered on the nightly news, the index rose by around 10 points -- no news was good news.
• The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement, with Jan Nimczik, November 2024.
  The focus is on the effects on labor productivity and wages. We find substantial positive effects and show that they are consistent with spatial equilibrium as higher wages are balanced by higher rents.  We provide evidence on the type of agglomeration economies sustaining high population density, labor productivity, wages, and rents following refugee arrivals. The discussion of the related literature on the economic effects of refugees in post-WWII Germany has been updated.
• Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions: A Comment, with Jan Nimczik, July 2024, CRC TR 244 DP 579. 
  — See also the note that Michael Peters published October 2024 on the website of The Econometric Society:
  Michael Peters (2024): Market Size and Spatial Growth–Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions – Update Regarding Data Source, October, Replication Package Zip File, available here.
• Felix Auerbach und Zipf‘s (1941) law for cities. Über­raschenderweise wurde Felix Auerbachs richtungs­weisender Artikel aus dem Jahr 1913 über die Verteilung von Stadtgrößen in Deutschland, dem Vereinigten Königreich, den USA und anderen Ländern und Regionen nie ins Englische übersetzt. Meine Über­setzung mit einer kurzen Einführung ist in EPB: Urban Analytics and City Science, 2023, veröffentlicht. Siehe auch EPB editorial of Michael Batty. Diego Rybski und ich haben auch einen brief history of science article über Auerbach, Zipf und Lotka geschrieben. Lotka (1925) führte, aufbauend auf Auerbach, die moderne Darstellung des Auerbach-Lotka-Zipf-Gesetzes für Städte ein. Unser Artikel wurde im Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 2023 veröffentlicht. Beim Schreiben des Artikels stießen Diego und ich auf die sehr frühe empirische Arbeit von Saibante (1928). Wie Auerbach, betrachtet Saibante auch verschiedene Länder und Regionen, aber er verwendete den methodischen Ansatz von Lotka. Damit ist Saibante der Pionier der modernen empirischen Arbeit über das Auerbach-Lotka-Zipf-Gesetz für Städte.
• Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models using Benchmark Industry Characteristics, with Elias Papaioannou, January 2023, Online Appendix. Published in The Economic Journal. Replication files and (standalone) matlab estimation program.
• Rainfall, Agricultural Output, and Persistent Democratization, with  Adilzhan Ismailov, December 2021, Supplementary Appendix. Readme and Access to a Folder with Replication Codes&Data. Economica.
• The Effect of WWI Military Casualties on the Population Distribution in Germany, May 2021, Supplementary Appendix (The first version of this paper, circulated in April, was entitled Gibrat's Law for Cities: Evidence from WWI Casualties). NBER Summer Institute 2021 presentation slides.
• Civil War and Commodity Price Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond, June 2020, Online Appendix Tables.
• Democratic Tipping Points, with Adilzhan Ismailov, May 2020.
• Voxeu article on Democratic Tipping Points.
• International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond, July 2019,  Readme with Access to a Folder with Replication Codes&Data. Codes Allow for Choosing Additional Specifications Easily. Direct Access to the Folder
  Appendix A: Dealing with Mismeasured Commodity Export Shares, Appendix B: Appendix Figures and Tables.

Veröffentlichungen

• Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models using Benchmark Industry Characteristics, with Elias Papaioannou, June 2022, Online Appendix. Published in The Economic Journal. Replication files and (standalone) matlab estimation program.
• Rainfall, Agricultural Output, and Persistent Democratization, with  Adilzhan Ismailov, December 2021, Supplementary Appendix. Readme and Access to a Folder with Replication Codes&Data. Economica.
• The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach: Comment, (with Francesco Caselli), American Economic Review, 109 (3), 2019, 1155-1174.
• Agricultural Risk and the Spread of Religious Communities, (with Philipp Ager), Journal of the European Economic Association, 16 (4), 2018, pp. 1021-68. Supplementary Appendix.
• One Effect to Rule them All? A Comment on Climate and Conflict, (with 25 co-authors), Climatic Change, 127, (3–4), 2014, 391–397.
• The Contribution of Schooling in Development Accounting: Results from a Nonparametric Upper Bound, (with F. Caselli), Journal of Development Economics, 104, 2013, 199–211.
• Estimating Effect of Trans­itory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict, Review of Economics and Institutions, 4 (2), 2013, 1–14.
• Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy, (with M. Brückner and A. Tesei), Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 (2), 2012, 389–399.
• Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (4), 2011, 215–227 (Web Appendix).
• Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity, (with M. Brückner), Econometrica, 79 (3), 2011, 923–947.
• Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?, (with M. Jarocinski), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2 (4), 2010, 222–246 (Web Appendices A and B, C, D).
• International Commodity Prices, Growth, and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa, (with M. Brückner), The Economic Journal, 120 (544), 2010, 519–534.
• Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth, (with E. Papaioannou), Review of Economics and Statistics, 91 (1), 2009, 66–82.
• Linkages, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,  2008.
• Urban Production Externalities, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,  2008.
• Red Tape and Delayed Entry, (with E. Papaioannou), Journal of European Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings, 5 (2–3), 2007, 444–458.
• Identifying Human Capital Externalities: Theory with Applications, (with G. Peri), Review of Economic Studies, 73 (2), 2006, 381–412.
• Long-run Substitutability Between More and Less Educated Workers: Evidence from US States 1950-1990, (with G. Peri), Review of Economics and Statistics, 87 (4), 2005, 652–663.
• The Private and Social Return to Schooling in Italy, (with F. Cingano and P. Cipollone), Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, December 2004.
• On Payoff Heterogeneity in Games with Strategic Complementarities, (with J. Costain), Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (4), 2004, 701–713.
• Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty: Comment, American Economic Review, 94 (3), 2004, 785–795.
• Trade and Productivity, (with F. Alcala), Quarterly Journal of Economics, CXIX (2), 2004, 613–646.
• Human Capital in a Global and Knowledge-Based Economy, (with A. de la Fuente), Report, European Comission, DG Employment and Social Affairs, 2002.
• Input Chains and Industrialization, Review of Economic Studies, 69 (3), 2002, 565–587.
• Agglomeration Effects in Europe, European Economic Review, 46 (2), 2002, 213–227.
• Business cycles and investment in human capital: international evidence on higher education: A comment, Science Direct, Carnegie Special Issue, Volume 52, June 2000, 257–262.
• Efficiency and Equilibrium with Dynamic Increasing Aggregate Returns due to Demand Complementarities, (with K. Matsuyama, Econometrica, 67 (3), 1999, 499–525.
• Start-up Costs and Pecuniary Externalities as Barriers to Economic Development, (with K. Matsuyama), Journal of Development Economics, 49 (1), 1996, 33–59.
• Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity, (with R. Hall), American Economic Review, 86 (1), 1996, 54–70.