Ringvorlesung im Herbstsemester 2022

Es gibt einen Krieg in Europa. Dies ist eine Nachricht, der man zurzeit nicht entgehen kann. Damit einhergehend werden auch vermehrt die wirtschaft­lichen Ausmaße dieses Krieges in den Medien thematisiert. Unterstützen wir die Ukraine gut genug? Wie abhängig sind wir von Russlands Ressourcen? Warum schützt uns eine zunehmende Globalisierung nicht vor dieser Art von Konflikten? Die Relevanz dieser Fragen ist der Grund dafür, warum sich die Ringvorlesung des HWS 2022 unter dem Oberthema „Economics of War and Crisis“ vor allem mit dem Ukraine Krieg befasst. Die Fach­schaft VWL hat dazu fünf Speaker eingeladen, die jeweils brandaktuelle Einblicke in jüngste volkswirtschaft­liche Er­kenntnisse zum Ukraine Krieg präsentieren. So wollen wir es Studierenden ermöglichen, sich außerhalb des Mannheimer Curriculums über den Ukraine Krieg zu informieren und im Rahmen der anschließenden Diskussionen eine Meinung zu bilden.

Nähere Informationen zu den Vortragenden, Themen und Terminen finden Sie im Folgenden sowie in den sozialen Kanälen der Fach­schaft VWL. Studierende aller Fakultäten sowie externe Gäste sind zu allen Veranstaltungen herzlich eingeladen.

Mittwoch, 12. Oktober, 19.00 Uhr, Hörsaal SN 163:
Dr. Katrin Kamin (Kiel Institute for the World Economy):
„Bilateral Trade and conflict heterogeneity“

Abstract:

Although the number of interstate disputes has fallen in the past 30 years, rising geopolitical competition is challenging the foundation of the absence of great power war. Additionally, the number of internal conflicts is surging. At the same time, globalisation has spun a net of global trade connections and has thus created dependencies, making everyone more vulnerable to the repercussions of conflict. In this context, this paper analyses the relations­hip between trade and conflict from a trade perspective: Using data from UCDP and COMTRADE this paper studies the effects of five different conflict types on international trade flows in the period 1992-2011, including interstate and internal conflicts as well as other types of violence. Applying the gravity equation of international trade and the ppml high-dimensional fixed effects estimator, this paper finds that the heterogeneity of conflict types and their distinct characteristics matter for the magnitude and direction of their influence on trade. (Kiel Working Paper, Juni 2022)

Referentin:

Katrin Kamin is a Postdoc and Deputy Director of the Research Centre Trade Policy and Co-Head of the Geopolitics and Economics Initiative at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. In 2009 she received her Diploma in International Cultural & Business Studies at the University of Passau. In 2019 she  completed her doctorate under the supervision of Holger Görg on „International Trade and Conflict: Determinants, Impact, Endogeneity and Data“ at the  University of Kiel. She conducts research on international trade and international political economy with a special focus on geoeconomics. In particular, she works on the interactions between economic and political variables, such as democratisation and conflicts with trade.
  

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Mittwoch, 19. Oktober, 19.00 Uhr, digital live:
Prof. Dr. Gernot J. Müller (Universität Tübingen):
„Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine“

Abstract:

The outbreak of a war exposes countries and firms in its proximity to the risk of military escalation. Disaster risk goes up and stock markets decline accordingly. In support of this hypothesis, we identify a „proximity penalty“ in the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The closer countries and – even within countries – firms are located to Ukraine, the more negative their equity returns in a four-week window around the start of the war. Controlling for trade-related spillovers, 1,000 kilometers of extra distance equate to 1.1 percentage points in equity returns. (CEPR Discussion Paper NO.DP17185, Mai 2022)

Referent:

Gernot J. Müller is a professor of economics at the Department of International Macroeconomics and Finance and Head of the School of Business and Economics at the University of Tübingen. He is Research Professor in the Ifo Centre for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys, Fellow of the CESifo Research Network and Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). He was formerly Professor of Economics at the University of Bonn and Assistant Professor at the University of Frankfurt. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics at the European University Institute, Florence, and his M.Sc. in Economics and Philosophy at the London School of Economics.
  

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Mittwoch, 26. Oktober, 19.00 Uhr, digital live:
Prof. Dr. Lena Dräger (Universität Hannover):
„Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine“

Abstract:

How do global political shocks influence individuals’ expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Comparing the results to a representative sample of households, we find that the treatment effects are twice as large for experts than for households. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supply-side effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, we find that the treatment substantially changed monetary policy recommendations. (CESifo Working Paper No. 9649, April 2022)

Referentin:

Lena Dräger is a professor of Money and International Finance at the Leibniz University Hannover. Her research interests include monetary macroeconomics, international financial markets, and the formation of consumers' macroeconomic expectations. She is also a CESifo Research Fellow and a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Macroeconomics (IMK), Düsseldorf. In 2011 she graduated from the ETH Zurich with a D.Sc, which gave her the Medal of the ETH Zurich for exceptional Ph.D. Dissertations in 2013. She earned her M.Sc. in economics at the University of Kent.
  

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Mittwoch, 9. November, 19.00 Uhr, digital live:
Dr. Feodora Teti (ifo Zentrum für Außen­wirtschaft):
„Wie abhängig ist Deutschland von Rohstoffimporten? Eine Analyse für die Produktion von Schlüssel­technologien“

Abstract:

Der Ukrainekrieg, geopolitische Spannungen sowie die neuen Anforderungen für die Gestaltung der Lieferketten durch das Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz stellen große Herausforderungen für Unternehmen dar. Insbesondere die Produktion von Schlüssel­technologien, die unter anderem für die Energiewende notwendig sind, ist häufig von importierten Rohstoffen abhängig. Aus diesem Grund ist eine Analyse der deutschen Abhängigkeiten von einzelnen Rohstoffen auf Produktebene von großer Bedeutung, um das Risiko von Lieferketten­unterbrechungen zu ermitteln. Diese Studie untersucht die Abhängigkeit Deutschlands von Rohstoffimporten, welche für die Produktion von folgenden Schlüssel­technologien notwendig sind: Elektromotoren, Windturbinen, Photovoltaik-Technologien, 3D Druck, Robotik, Digital­technologien, Drohnen, Lithium-Ionen-Batterien und Brennstoffzellen sowie Wasserstoff-Technologien. Ziel der Studie ist es, auf Basis von detaillierten Handels­daten die Abhängigkeit Deutschlands von Rohstoffimporten für Schlüssel­technologien empirisch abzuleiten und Schlussfolgerungen für die Anpassung der Außen­wirtschafts­politik und des Geschäfts­modells Deutschlands zu ziehen.

Referentin:

Feodora Teti is an assistant professor at the Centre for International Economics at the LMU and and deputy director of the ifo Institute at the Centre for International Economics Munich. Her research interests focus on international trade, applied econometrics, development economics, and trade policy. She is a research affiliate at CESifo Research Network. In 2020 she received her Ph.D. in economics at the Ludwig Maximilians University, where she also earned her M.Sc. degree.
  

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Mittwoch, 16. November, 19.00 Uhr, digital live:
Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch (Universität Kiel):
„The ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?“

  
Abstract:

This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. This sixth version covers government commitments made between January 24 and August 3, 2022 and has a new detailed overview on weapon deliveries. We track support by 40 governments, including all G7 and European Union member countries, plus by EU institutions (thus including 41 donors). Private donations and aid through non-governmental organizations are not included due to a lack of systematic data, but we do show estimates on government costs of hosting Ukrainian refugees. To value in-kind support like military equipment or foodstuff, we rely on government statements as well as own calculations using market prices. We find significant differences in the scale of support across countries, both in absolute terms and as percent of donor country GDP. In billions of Euros, by far the largest bilateral supporter of Ukraine is the United States, followed by the EU institutions and the United Kingdom. In percent of donor GDP, Eastern European countries stand out as particularly generous, and this is even more so once we account for refugee costs. In the past months (June and July), new commitments have fallen notably, thus further widening the gap between what Ukraine demands and the foreign aid it receives. (Kiel Working Paper, August 2022)

Referent:

Christoph Trebesch is a professor and the director of the Research Area „International Finance and Macroeconomics“ at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Department of Economics at the University of Kiel. His research interests include Sovereign Debt and Default, International Capital Flows, Financial Stability and Financial Crises, Political Economy, and International Financial Institutions. He is also a research fellow of CEPR and CESifo. In 2011 he received his Ph.D. in Economics at the Free University Berlin, where he also received his Master (Diplom) in Economics in 2005.